Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 19.658772 21.386897 23.297300 25.585984 28.280941 31.389461 35.300980
2024-10-20 16.815344 19.026072 21.646556 25.050166 29.464294 35.169214 43.429302
2024-10-27 15.569529 18.197144 21.501985 26.118959 32.693272 42.274398 58.656535
2024-11-03 14.194508 16.958145 20.579630 25.913876 34.077458 47.231878 73.538917
2024-11-10 13.228749 16.095937 19.986080 25.989178 35.810367 53.298887 94.999542
2024-11-17 12.487270 15.431929 19.549021 26.172011 37.705064 60.410520 126.707029
2024-11-24 11.858294 14.847763 19.135974 26.290644 39.482758 68.149790 173.827124
2024-12-01 11.225535 14.194658 18.537500 25.992322 40.388258 74.453919 233.877370
2024-12-08 10.749224 13.724636 18.161640 26.000745 41.890223 83.245321 351.683167
2024-12-15 10.278968 13.225381 17.687597 25.758600 42.798788 91.102569 549.486598
2024-12-22 9.851726 12.759827 17.223512 25.466163 43.523973 99.096304 972.288872
2024-12-29 9.481934 12.356950 16.825810 25.242580 44.360707 108.435949 2466.698910
2025-01-05 9.147594 11.993653 16.472854 25.077527 45.362183 120.004469 97360.160460
2025-01-12 8.765768 11.536475 15.931166 24.479883 45.123193 126.104685 NaN
2025-01-19 8.680694 11.537926 16.163844 25.469637 49.488365 163.905489 NaN
2025-01-26 8.410624 11.229932 15.838131 25.256497 50.370905 183.374134 NaN
2025-02-02 8.203027 11.011244 15.653057 25.321209 52.149764 215.847085 NaN
2025-02-09 8.025629 10.831962 15.524456 25.492845 54.364281 263.231170 NaN
2025-02-16 7.851954 10.649859 15.377539 25.604836 56.454246 324.662650 NaN
2025-02-23 7.637096 10.390171 15.072615 25.318814 57.046911 372.231514 NaN
2025-03-02 7.473454 10.208551 14.900778 25.326582 58.787085 467.075233 NaN
2025-03-09 7.289933 9.986198 14.640199 25.094766 59.537057 559.024574 NaN
2025-03-16 7.111129 9.765144 14.370513 24.814818 60.030496 667.603433 NaN